The Craft Brewery Bubble: The Hopocalypse Is Nigh
By Stack o Turtles' Economics Dept.
PORTLAND, OR — In what economists are calling "the most predictable market saturation since the seventh Fast & Furious movie," the craft brewery industry has officially reached terminal velocity, with a new study showing that 78% of American buildings constructed before 1950 now house at least one microbrewery, two beard oil retailers, and a part-time tattoo artist who also does pour-over coffee.
Jason Mendelbaum, a 34-year-old systems analyst who just looking to do laundry, discovered last Tuesday that his neighborhood laundromat had been converted into Suds & Suds, a laundry-themed brewery specializing in hoppy, hazy, juicy brews like, Tide Pod Challenge IPA and I Forgot to Add the Fabric Softener Double IPA. “The washing machines remain operational, though they now cost $12 per load and include a complimentary flight of four 2oz beer samples… I just wanted to wash my khakis," Mendelbaum told our reporters while nursing a $14 Spin Cycle Session IPA. "Now I have to pair my laundry. Apparently, darks go with porters, lights with pilsners, it's exhausting, but at least I’m nicely buzzed at 11AM."
According to the National Brewers Association, the number of craft breweries in America has increased by 4,700% since 2010, with an estimated 68% of them named using the formula, "[Local Wildlife] + [Industrial Tool] + Brewing Co." The remaining 32% opt for torturous puns so bad they violate the Geneva Convention.
"We're seeing peak craft beer," explains Dr. Eliza Thornton, economist at the University of Chicago and author of Pour Decisions: The Economics of Craft Beer Oversaturation. "The average American now lives within walking distance of 7 different places where they can get a maple bacon smoked coffee porter served by a man with a waxed mustache who will judge them for not understanding the difference between Citra and Mosaic hops."
The explosion has led to increasingly desperate attempts to stand out in the crowded marketplace. "Three Hippos Spade Bit Brewing Co." in Portland, Maine, recently released what they claim is the world's first beer aged in former WD-40 barrels, while "Sleepy Opossum Bandsaw Brewing Co." in Austin, Texas, now serves beers exclusively in avocado husks, a choice they defend as "both sustainable and Instagram-worthy." Stack o Turtles staff economists agree given the high levels of avocado toast consumption in the area.
Financial analysts point to several warning signs that the bubble is about to burst. Most notably, the national hop shortage has become so severe that brewers in the Pacific Northwest have resorted to using actual pinecones in their IPAs, a practice they insist is "traditional" despite having zero supporting evidence.
"I went to a new brewery last weekend," reports 29-year-old Hannah Kim of Minneapolis, "and they served me something they called a 'Deconstructed IPA.' It was, like, literally just a glass of hot water with, like, a hop pellet and a packet of, like, yeast on the side. I only paid $16 for it and my followers liked it, like, 300 times."
The economic implications are dire. According to a recent survey, 43% of recent college graduates now list "assistant brewmaster" as their primary career goal, even though the position typically pays in free samples and perhaps the opportunity to name a seasonal release after their pet. Meanwhile, industrial property values in formerly abandoned warehouse districts have skyrocketed, with landlords specifically advertising "spaces with exposed brick walls perfect for hanging beer flight paddles."
Experts estimate that if the current rate of brewery openings continues, by 2047 every American will own a microbrewery, leading to a scenario where the entire population is engaged solely in brewing beer for each other, with only AI left to grow food and maintain critical infrastructure.
"It's basic economics," explains Dr. Thornton. "We're approaching a beer singularity where supply has completely detached from demand. As described in my book, man will soon merge with beard, sparrow tattooed Americans will primarily discuss hop profiles until the collapse of our economy."
The federal government has thus-far declined to intervene, though an unnamed source within the Treasury Department reports that officials are considering a strategic adjective reserve to assist breweries in continuing to describe their products as "dank" and "resinous".
What's Next
As the craft beer bubble approaches its inevitable burst, the Department of Labor will develop retraining programs for displaced brewers, focusing on transferable skills such as “looking pensively at things”, “advanced pocketed apronry manufacturing and leather work”, and “debate skills with a focus on why something was better five years ago." Urban planners will draft proposals to convert defunct breweries into affordable housing, though critics point out that removing the Edison bulbs and reclaimed wood bar tops would leave many of these buildings structurally unsound. Most promising is the Federal Reserve will consider a "Brewery Buyback Program," which would purchase failing craft breweries and convert them into sourdough bakeries, a sector economists believe has unlimited upside potential.
Stack o Turtles Prediction: NASA will launch the first orbital microbrewery in 2032, producing "Zero-G IPA" that costs $86 a pint and amazingly tastes exactly like Pabst Blue Ribbon.
Stay tuned to Stack o Turtles: Where our journalists ferment terrible ideas until they're barely palatable- like your local brewery's Pete’s French Bulldog Kumquat Gose.